In the style of my friend the Goddess, I am going to feature a couple of pics... of STOCKS I like.
You were expecting something different? Fuggedaboudit, there's only one Goddess, and she's unique.
You were expecting something different? Fuggedaboudit, there's only one Goddess, and she's unique.
Anyway, I like ADCT here, primarily as a takeover play... I just don't think they have the stuff to stay independent, and it looks like SOMEONE likes them at these prices.
As well, take a look at my Israeli friend, ALVR... also looking nice on the WEEKLY chart (which I find to be more useful for long term turnaround plays). As always, don't even think about trading on these ideas, unless you've consulted a good psychiatrist and/or Warren Buffet.
15 comments:
Hi Jake, nice chart work, thanks for sharing.
Concerning your reply on Tim's site:
What's important is for someone to find a system that works and sticks with it until it stops working. Could be that GOOG/AAPL might not be the tech leaders I'll be using in 6 months for now but at this moment they are the obvious leaders and I use them. That system kept me on the right side of the market since May '06 so I'm not fixing something ain't broken.
And being on the right side of the market is all that counts in the hedge fund industry. Whatever system you use be it TA, FA, voodoo or else, the only thing that counts is can you contribute to make more money?
Regarding your suggestion of accepting comments to get feedback:
Been there, done that. But not on a public blog. I founded and ran a restricted discussion board from March '05 to April '06 when I shut it down. I was the one doing the recruiting and the firing. And I kept only the best traders. The feedback I was and other members were getting from the board was extremely valuable. Out of the 39692 posts on that board, 99.9% of them were of extremely high value. This is how I developed and tested the systems I presently use.
Now go to any finance blog from any successful trader or chartist and see what is the ratio valuable posts. Take Tim's for example since we both visit it from time to time. My take is that the ratio is about 20%-25% on the best days. So Tim is spending time reading 75% junk on its blog. And sometimes he gets involved with some idiot and he wastes even more time typing an answer back. It would be a lot better if he was not accepting anonymous posts but at the end of the day, he wants to sell his books and his prophet charting system so I guess he wants to make it easy for potential clients to communicate with him.
I've seen blogs of people I highly respect, such as Tim, with value ratios of not even 5%. That's a lot of junk to read.
You might ask why I don't ask for the posters to register then. It's just that I don't need or want feedback at this moment. This is the reason why I shut that powerful board down. It's easy for someone, and especially for me, to be convince to look at something else or adjust this or that. Then you get into the developing and testing phase again and might be trying to fix something that is working. Been there, done that. Never again.
Once a system works for you, just run with it and don't touch it until it stops working. Might sound stubborn but if the system works why run the risk of breaking it?
When my system was proven to work for a few months, I knew it was time to move on and shut that great board down. I got all the feedback I needed to get and the others members got their feedback too and were running with their own successful systems.
Like Nicolas Darvas said: Shut the WS noise out. And all those comments you read on blogs make up for a very loud WS noise out that might influence you. I try to read the least financial sites possible and the least blogs too. I read Tim's blog because he is the ultimate perma-bear and it is very valuable information to know when a guy like him turns bullish because this is the time to sell everything and go short. I started reading the comments lately only because I wanted to get his feedback on my cup-handles thesis but he never once answered me although I asked probably at 4 different occastions since March 1st. Don't know why, he must think I'm a perma-bull. :)
This is why I don't accept comments but the blog experience will soon end so it doesn't matter at this time anyway.
Will come check out your charts from time to time and will post feedback if I see something worth noting.
Have a great day!
Tom
Tom,
Thanks for the reply. You sound very much like a friend of mine from down New Orleans way.
Not a statitician by training are you?
Anyway, I really just wanted to compliment your trading, but I understand your point. You don't want to get to be too popular.
Maybe the answer is to start your own hedge fund? Why work for the man, anyway?
(I know some folks who might be interested, btw...)
Hey thanks Jake,
Not a stats guy. Past experience is boring accounting as CFO of mutual funds company.
You're spot on with the hedge funds. After having talked to some in the recent weeks, I thought that I'm much better starting my own. Heck, I was reading about the top 40 managers of 2006 and although the top 100 averaged 246 million in take home pay, only a few of them were able to have their funds making more than 15%! LOL! Heck, they charge anywhere from 20% to 50% of the gains plus 3%-5% on assets. No wonder they make so much money for themselves. And reason why I want to get involved. If you recall the Blog-X virtual experience last fall, I was able to turn 312% annualized return during the one month testing. Heck, if I can make only 100% return, I would be on the map.
I'm looking at someone ready to risk some $$ to become 1/3 partner with me in a business and fund at least a 500K fund to build a track record. I'm talking to some hedgie guys but this takes time.
Best,
Saw SMH moving above 36? This is a HUGE positive.
Noted! Gads, we are looking at the same things...
This is why I'm curious as to why you don't use SMH as your "guide" as opposed to the two individuals you do use...
I think we may see the battle won over 2533-2500... soon.
(ALVR getting a little retrace here... I'm hoping it pulls to the 8.40 region)
Question: do you just trade indexes or are you actually trading the GOO and AX?
Jake, easy to answer your SMH question. Take a look at SMH since July of last year (it did nothing) and compare to COMP for the same period. Do you think I would have been able to stay on the right side of the market if I had used SMH instead of GOOG and AAPL? No way.
Semis are very important but they make up what I call the GENERAL market conditions I review every night. Same as US $, VIX, Biotechs, small caps, etc.
Techs are leaded by GOOG and AAPL not by SMH. But there is no real tech rally unless SMH joins the party and this is why COMP took a beating from 2500 to 2330 over a few weeks. Now if we have the semis on board, this 2750 target will be almost a walk in the park. Need to wait for 2533 to be crossed.
I'm trading anything that can be plotted on a chart. I'm a chartist. In my previous blog, I gave picks on hundreds of stocks in any sector.
Cool, thanks again for your replies.
nice post JAKE,
btw that second
goddess link
is dead...
GO YANKS!
Have a
great weekend
MAS
Tom 2 OX,
Not sure if you're checking, but I didn't get your final comment... GOOG up almost 2% in after hours after closing down... what were you looking at?
(I expected to see you jumpin' for joy!)
Dead links? I was wondering what the smell was...
Maybe we can make some sausage.
Have a nice time w./ Mom, MAS, yer a good kid.
MAS -- thanks for the tip, fixed the link.
Jake, thanks for noting this. I updated the blog to be more precise. Today action in GOOG was irrelevant so I look at the variance from yesterday's closing. It was up only .3% when I called it flat but from yesterday's close. Most options players got in it yesterday so this is going to be a losing for them tomorrow unless GOOG shoots above 500 or so.
Hey Jake, just noticed you posted a comment destined to me on Tim's blog. FYI, I'm no longer going to read the comments on his blogs. Too many weird people out there. Only reason why I was checking was to see if Tim would reply to request for feedback on my cup-handles thesis. He never did for more than a month so I'm giving up anyway looking for an answer anyway. As said yesterday, he must think I'm a perma-bull as per what he wrote this week, it's easy to see that he doesn't have much respect for bulls. I wish him good luck with his puts though.
Thanks.
Tom2Oc:
Thanks for the clarification. And poor Tim will need your luck, I fear.
GOOG closed up in AH up 2.27%, btw. Tomorrow should be interesting.
I like pics...
Thank you for the linky love, my dear Jake. But if M.A.S. keeps up with stealing my girls, he will put me out of the blog business!
lol!
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